Independent Research · Since 2005

Twenty years of
Fed-driven
portfolio decisions.

A faithful record of every semi-annual allocation from 2005 to today — each one anchored in the Fed's balance sheet and rate cycle. No predictions. No narratives. Regime clarity.

Browse all regimes → View track record Read the methodology
Avg Annual Return
+20.4%
vs +9.6% S&P 500
$200K → (2005–2026)
$9.83M
vs $1.14M buy & hold
Semesters Documented
42
S1 2005 → S1 2026
Outperformed S&P
16/21
years with positive alpha
The Framework

One lens. Four quadrants. Systematic allocation.

Every semester begins with the same two questions: where is the Fed's balance sheet (expanding or contracting), and where are interest rates (rising or falling)? The intersection of these two variables defines the regime. The regime defines the portfolio.

  • Fed Balance Sheet: QE (expanding) vs QT (contracting)
  • Interest Rates: Rising/High vs Falling/Low
  • Four quadrants map to different asset behaviors
  • Anchor → Beta → Alpha: three layers built on top of regime
  • Semi-annual rebalance with no intra-period trading
The four quadrants
Quadrant I

QE + Low Rates

Maximum stimulus. Risk-on. Growth and beta dominate.

— semesters
Quadrant II

QT + Rising Rates

Full restriction. Defensives. Energy. Quality cash flows.

— semesters
Quadrant III

QT + Low Rates

Normalization. Selective exposure. Value and quality.

— semesters
Quadrant IV

Transition

In-Between. Dispersion rises. Selection over direction.

— semesters
Recent semesters
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Didactic Structure

Anchor → Beta → Alpha

Every portfolio is built in three layers, each serving a distinct function within the identified regime:

  • Anchor: Drawdown protection. Capital preservation floor. Regime-dependent (bonds, gold, defensives, or cash).
  • Beta: Regime-aligned market exposure. ETFs that capture the dominant sector rotation implied by the quadrant.
  • Alpha: Individual stock conviction. Blue-chips with identifiable catalysts within the regime context.
Current Regime

S1 2026 — Transition

Fed rate: 3.50–3.75% (paused). Balance sheet: ~$6.6T, QT complete. MRM Score: 7.7/10 — "Thin Ice". ERP at 1.0%, Market Cap/M2 at 310%.

Profile: Moderado with reinforced anchor. Regime transitioning from In-Between toward Most Liquid as balance sheet begins expanding.

View S1 2026 →